The Road to a United Ireland
Tracking momentum toward Irish reunification — polling, the border-poll threshold, and the changing demography of the North. Data from Red C, Ireland Thinks, Ipsos B&A and NISRA.
This index combines every poll on this page — Northern Ireland border polls (the actual mechanism specified in the Good Friday Agreement), Republic of Ireland direct-support polls, and the Republic's more aspirational "would you like to see unity" series — from the first post-Agreement poll in 1998 to today. Each of the three builds its own trend line (real polls linked between them); the index shown here is the equal-weighted average of those three trends at every year, so it always blends all three jurisdictions/wordings rather than whichever one happened to be polled in a given year. Dots mark years with at least one real poll; individual polls, split out by jurisdiction and question wording, are charted separately below.
Support for unity in the Republic has risen 7.00 points since 2010, peaking at 66.00% in 2022; the latest reading (Nov 2023) is 2.00 points off that high. Among voters who have made up their minds, a clear majority (80.00%) already back a united Ireland. Under the Good Friday Agreement, the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland must call a border poll once it appears likely that a majority in the North would vote for unity — see the composite sentiment index above for the island-wide picture.
Direct-support polls have held well above 50% since 2010
Every standalone survey asking Republic of Ireland voters a direct unity question since 2010 has found majority support — support peaked at 66.00% in 2022 (ARINS / The Irish Times) and stood at 64.00% in the most recent Nov 2023 poll. The dashed line marks the 50% threshold.
Not all "united Ireland" polls ask the same question
The chart above tracks pollsters who ask a direct, border-poll-style question — broadly, "if a poll were held tomorrow, how would you vote?" A second group of surveys, including RTÉ's long-running Claire Byrne Live/Amárach series, ask a more aspirational question about wanting to see a united Ireland at some point, rather than voting in an actual poll tomorrow — and consistently register 10–20 points higher as a result.
Question wording can move the topline dramatically even within one survey: when the polling firm EMI added the phrase "in the EU" to the standard united Ireland question, support in Northern Ireland jumped to 63% — far above what "many other surveys" find — which EMI's own CEO attributed directly to that framing. Pollster name alone doesn't tell you what was actually asked, so we keep these differently-worded series visually separate below rather than merging them into one misleading trend line.
The aspirational-framing series
RTÉ's Claire Byrne Live/Amárach series and the newest Amárach/ European Movement Ireland poll ask about wanting unity in general, not voting in a poll tomorrow — hence the much higher numbers.
Northern Ireland has narrowed the gap since the Agreement, though recent polling is volatile
Support for unity in the North has risen from 25.00% in 1998 — two months after the Good Friday Agreement was signed — to 35.80% in the latest Institute of Irish Studies / Sunday Times NI poll, a net gain of 10.80 points. Support peaked at 46.00% in 2019 and has eased back since; the latest reading is 13.90 points behind staying in the UK.
Brexit reshaped the debate in the North
Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU in 2016. Years on, opinion has hardened against Brexit — a key driver of the shift toward unity.
The North is changing: 2021 Census
For the first time since partition in 1921, more people in Northern Ireland come from a Catholic than a Protestant background.
Catholic-background residents (45.7%) now outnumber those from a Protestant background (43.5%) — a historic reversal from 1921, when Protestants made up roughly two-thirds of the population.
Irish and Northern Irish identities together now rival British identity, and a large "neither / both" middle increasingly holds the balance in any future border poll.
The Case for a United Ireland
Arguments advanced by advocates of reunification.
Back inside the EU
Reunification would bring Northern Ireland back fully into the European Union and its single market — reversing Brexit for the North and restoring EU citizenship, funding and freedom of movement for everyone on the island.
A single all-island economy
Economic modelling (ESRI, and international studies) points to significant long-run gains from removing the border, harmonising regulation and building one integrated market of roughly 7 million people.
Integrated healthcare
All-island health services — from cross-border cancer care to a single children's heart-surgery network — already show how shared provision can cut waiting times and duplication across the island.
Ending partition
A united Ireland would resolve a century-old constitutional question peacefully and democratically, through the concurrent referendums set out in the Good Friday Agreement.
Demographic momentum
The 2021 census recorded a Catholic-background plurality in Northern Ireland for the first time, and a growing "neither" middle — reshaping the long-term arithmetic of a border poll.
Rights & identity for all
The Good Friday framework guarantees that British, Irish and Northern Irish identities — and both traditions — would be protected and cherished in a new, shared Ireland.
Building a Shared Future
A united Ireland envisioned in the Good Friday Agreement is a shared home for both traditions. Cross-community reconciliation — from sport to schools — is already laying the groundwork for a peaceful, agreed future.
PeacePlayers
Brings together young people from Catholic and Protestant communities in Belfast — and in divided societies worldwide — through basketball. "Children who play together can learn to live together."
Corrymeela
Northern Ireland's oldest peace and reconciliation community, hosting cross-community dialogue and residentials at Ballycastle since 1965.
Co-operation Ireland
Builds cross-border and cross-community relationships North and South, working with both traditions and both governments.
Integrated education
A growing movement of schools educating Catholic and Protestant children side by side — consistently over-subscribed and backed by the Integrated Education Fund.
Glencree Centre
A County Wicklow centre for peace and reconciliation facilitating dialogue between communities on the island and beyond since 1974.
Shared Island Unit
An Irish Government initiative investing in all-island infrastructure, research and civic dialogue to deepen understanding across the island.
Republic of Ireland — Full Polling History
Every figure below is attributed to a named pollster; follow the link for the source.
Background & Context
Standalone surveys asking Republic of Ireland voters a direct unity question have found majority support in every reading since 2010, currently standing at 64.00% in the Nov 2023 ARINS / The Irish Times poll. In Northern Ireland, support has risen from 25.00% shortly after the 1998 Agreement to 35.80% today — the 2016 Brexit referendum, which imposed a hard economic border question on the island, is widely credited with accelerating that shift.
Under the Good Friday Agreement (1998), the British Secretary of State for Northern Ireland must call a border poll once it appears likely that a majority would vote for a united Ireland. Concurrent referendums would then be held North and South, with a simple majority in each deciding the outcome.
The 2021 census marked a demographic turning point, recording a Catholic-background plurality in the North for the first time. Combined with a growing "neither unionist nor nationalist" middle and record polling for unity in the South, the constitutional question is now firmly on the political agenda through initiatives like the government's Shared Island unit and civic-society planning for a future poll.
Sources & Methodology
Every poll on this page is attributed to the firm that ran it and shown to two decimal places, matching the precision each pollster published. Republic of Ireland unity figures are drawn from Red C, Ipsos MRBI, ARINS/Irish Times and the RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach series. Northern Ireland border-poll figures go back to the first post-Agreement poll in June 1998 and are drawn from LucidTalk (for the Belfast Telegraph), the ARINS project, the NI Life & Times Survey (ARK), the Institute of Irish Studies (University of Liverpool), Lord Ashcroft Polls and Ipsos Mori — all transcribed from Wikipedia's "Opinion polling on a United Ireland" page. The "Estimated Unity Sentiment" index at the top of this page is our own calculation: each of the NI, ROI-direct and ROI-aspirational series is interpolated into its own continuous trend, then the three trends are averaged at every year — it is a synthesis, not a poll in its own right. Demographic data is from the 2021 Census (NISRA).
United Ireland polls & the border poll. This page tracks support for a united Ireland and Irish reunification, including the latest border-poll polling in the Republic of Ireland, the 50% threshold that would make a poll likely under the Good Friday Agreement, and the changing religious and national-identity demographics of Northern Ireland from the 2021 census. Figures are updated as new polls from Red C, Ireland Thinks, Ipsos B&A and LucidTalk are published.