When is the next Irish general election?

The next Irish general election must be held by early 2030 at the latest. The 34th Dáil first met in December 2024 and has a maximum five-year term, though the Taoiseach can call an election earlier.

Who is the current Taoiseach of Ireland?

Micheál Martin of Fianna Fáil is the current Taoiseach, having taken office in January 2025 at the head of a coalition with Fine Gael and Independent TDs. Simon Harris of Fine Gael serves as Tánaiste.

Who won the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?

Catherine Connolly won the 2025 Irish Presidential Election on 24 October 2025 with 63.36% of first-preference votes, defeating Heather Humphreys of Fine Gael (29.46%) and Jim Gavin of Fianna Fáil (7.18%). She was inaugurated as President on 11 November 2025.

What are the latest Irish political polls showing in July 2026?

The most recent poll (Ireland Thinks, 3 July 2026) shows Fine Gael leading on 20%, Sinn Féin on 19%, Fianna Fáil on 17%, and the Social Democrats at 12%. Red C's 24 June 2026 poll showed Sinn Féin at 21%, Fine Gael at 18%, Fianna Fáil at 14%, and Social Democrats at 12%. Visit our tracker for weighted averages and trend analysis.

How do your Ireland election seat projections work?

Our seat projections use a Monte Carlo simulation with 5,000+ runs based on polling strength, historical seat efficiency ratios, transfer indices for PR-STV, and turnout adjustments to simulate outcomes for the 174 seats in the next Dáil Éireann.

What is PR-STV in Irish elections?

Proportional Representation with a Single Transferable Vote (PR-STV) is Ireland's voting system. Voters rank candidates in multi-seat constituencies, and lower-preference transfers can significantly impact who wins the final seats.

What is the difference between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil?

Fine Gael is a centre-right party historically associated with the pro-Treaty side of the Irish Civil War. Fianna Fáil is a centrist populist party founded by Éamon de Valera from the anti-Treaty side. Though both are centrist today, they differ in historical origins and core voter bases. Both are currently in government together in coalition with Independent TDs.

How does the Irish political system work?

Ireland is a parliamentary republic. The Taoiseach (Prime Minister) leads government, supported by the Tánaiste (Deputy PM). The Oireachtas (parliament) has two chambers: Dáil Éireann (174 TDs elected by PR-STV) and Seanad Éireann. The President is head of state, elected separately every seven years.

When is the next Irish general election?

The next Irish general election must be held by early 2030 at the latest. The 34th Dáil first met in December 2024 and has a maximum five-year term, though the Taoiseach can call an election earlier.

Who is the current Taoiseach of Ireland?

Micheál Martin (Fianna Fáil) has been Taoiseach since January 2025, leading a coalition government with Fine Gael and Independent TDs. Simon Harris (Fine Gael) serves as Tánaiste. Under the parties' programme for government, this is a rotating-Taoiseach arrangement: Martin is due to resign as Taoiseach on 16 November 2027, with Harris becoming Taoiseach for the remainder of the government's term.

Who won the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?

Catherine Connolly won the 2025 Irish Presidential Election on 24 October 2025 with 63.36% of first-preference votes, defeating Heather Humphreys (Fine Gael, 29.46%) and Jim Gavin (Fianna Fáil, 7.18%). She was inaugurated as President on 11 November 2025.

What are the latest Irish polls showing in 2026?

The most recent polls (July 2026) show Fine Gael and Sinn Féin in a very tight race. Ireland Thinks (3 Jul 2026): Fine Gael 20%, Sinn Féin 19%, Fianna Fáil 17%, Social Democrats 12%. Red C (24 Jun 2026): Sinn Féin 21%, Fine Gael 18%, Fianna Fáil 14%, Social Democrats 12%. Our tracker shows the weighted average of all polls.

How do seat projections work?

Our seat projections use a Monte Carlo simulation with 5,000+ runs based on polling strength, historical seat efficiency ratios, and transfer indices for PR-STV. Results show median seats with confidence intervals for the 174 seats in Dáil Éireann.

Proportional Representation with a Single Transferable Vote (PR-STV) is Ireland's voting system where voters rank candidates in multi-seat constituencies and transfers impact final results. Small differences in first-preference votes can result in very different seat outcomes.

What is the difference between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil?

Fine Gael is a centre-right party historically associated with the pro-Treaty side of the Irish Civil War (1922). Fianna Fáil is a centrist, populist party founded by Éamon de Valera from the anti-Treaty side. Though both are broadly centrist today, they differ in historical origins, policy emphases, and core support. Fine Gael tends to be more economically liberal; Fianna Fáil is more populist and rural-focused. Both parties are currently in government together in coalition.

How does the Irish political system work?

Ireland is a parliamentary republic. The Taoiseach (Prime Minister) leads government with the Tánaiste (Deputy PM). Parliament (the Oireachtas) has two chambers: Dáil Éireann (174 TDs elected by PR-STV) and Seanad Éireann (60 senators). The President is head of state, elected by the public every seven years. Coalition governments are the norm — no party has won an outright majority since 1977.

How many constituencies are there in Ireland?

Ireland has 43 Dáil constituencies, each electing between 3 and 5 TDs for a total of 174 seats in Dáil Éireann. Every constituency uses PR-STV, so voters rank candidates and transfers decide the final seats. Our constituency explorer has 2024 general election results, quotas, and elected TDs for each profiled constituency.

Who are the Social Democrats?

The Social Democrats are a progressive centre-left party founded in 2015 by Róisín Shortall, Stephen Donnelly, and Catherine Murphy. Currently led by Holly Cairns since 2023, they are polling at record highs around 12% in 2026, up from 4.81% in the 2024 general election. They focus on housing, healthcare, and climate policy.

Irish Opinion Polls 2026 | Latest Polling Data & Party Trends

Irish PoliticsPolls & Projections

Polling Highlights

Latest poll: Ireland Thinks, 4 Oct 2026

leads by 2.8 points — a lead that has held steady over the past month.

Current frontrunner

Sinn Féin

20.7%

· Last poll 19% (-4)

All parties

tick = 2024 result30dSeats

More context

Govt approval

29%

62% disapprove · Ireland Thinks

Next General Election

1,162days

Term

36%dissolve by 17 Dec 2029

Select Parties

Polling: Next Irish General Election

Weighted average of all major polls. Recency & sample size adjusted.

Source: Red C / Ireland Thinks / Ipsos B&A

Data verified: 4 Oct 2026

Pollsters: Red C, Ireland Thinks, Ipsos B&A

Poll History

Poll / Trend	Sample
Current Avg30 Day Trend		20.82%-0.3	18.02%-0.5	16.65%+0.9	10.12%-0.2
Hide Poll History
Shaded cells: green = came in above the trend average, red = below, by 0.1pt or more.
4 Oct '26	1000	19%-1.8	18%	18%+1.4	11%+0.9
22 Sep '26	1200	23%+1.8	17%-1.3	18%+1.6	8%-1.9
9 Sep '26	1010	21%-0.1	18%-0.5	14%-1.7	11%+0.6
5 Sep '26	1044	21%-0.4	19%+0.4	17%+1.0	10%
31 Jul '26	1384	20%-0.9	20%+1.2	16%+0.3	10%-0.3
3 Jul '26	1279	19%-1.9	20%+1.7	17%+1.0	12%+1.0
24 Jun '26	1010	21%-0.4	18%+0.2	14%-1.9	12%+1.3
5 Jun '26	1625	20%-1.8	19%+1.5	16%-0.2	12%+2.0
27 May '26	1010	21%-1.3	17%	15%-1.8	10%+0.9
1 May '26	1774	22%-1.3	17%+0.2	17%-0.1	9%+0.4
Show all 43 polls (33 more)

Pollster House Effects

How much higher (+) or lower (−) each pollster's readings for a party tend to run compared to the field average around the same date, in percentage points. These are already corrected for in the weighted average chart above — this table shows the correction itself, shrunk toward zero for pollsters with fewer polls.

Polls	SF	FG	FF	SD	GP	Aon	II	Ind
22	-1.0	+0.7	+0.8	+0.5	-0.3	+0.5	+0.5	-1.5
16	+0.5	-0.5	-1.3	-0.1	+0.2	+0.1	-0.4	+0.8
5	+1.6	-1.0	+0.4	-1.2	+0.4	-1.4	-0.8	+3.0

A positive number means that pollster tends to read that party higher than the field consensus around the same date — not that the party is doing better, and not a claim that any pollster is "wrong." Small, genuine house effects are normal and expected across any set of independent pollsters using different methodologies.

Seat Projections

Today's polling average run through 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 174-seat Dáil. Each figure moves from where the model stood a month ago to where it stands now.

Most seats

Sinn Féin

42seats (median)-2 seats

25–60 seats (80% range)88 = majority

Largest party in 56.4% of simulations · 60.3% a month ago

Government majority

FF + FG + Ind

39.7%chance of 88++5.0 pts

0%50%100%

84 median seats for the sitting coalition · 82 a month ago

Projected seats since the 2024 election

Sinn FéinFine GaelFianna FáilSocial Democrats

1 mo ago42353124

Nov 2024Oct 2026

Full seat projections & coalitions →

Budget 2027

Delivered 6 October 2026.

Summer Economic Statement package

€8.5bntotal

€7bn spending €1.5bn tax measures

On the table: 4 widely expected · 6 signalled · 1 under review · 1 ruled out

Latest

Budget tracker & what's on the table →

Party Leader Approval

Leader Approval

All leaders →

% satisfied with each party leader's performance, Ireland Thinks / Sunday Independent (4 Oct 2026). Figures count from the previous reading; lines show the recency-weighted trend.

Cairns

41%satisfied+3

-5 pts since Jan 2025

Martin

38%satisfied+3

-11 pts since Jan 2025

McDonald

34%satisfied+4

-4 pts since Jan 2025

Harris

33%satisfied-1

-12 pts since Jan 2025

Bacik

Lab

30%satisfied+2

-6 pts since Jan 2025

United Ireland & the Border Poll

United Ireland

Border-poll tracking North and South, weighted for recency and pollster house effects. 15.4 points separate the North from a majority for unity.

Northern Ireland — border poll

34.6%back a united Ireland

+2.6 latest poll vs Dec 2025

Republic of Ireland — border poll

63.5%back a united Ireland

State of the Nation

Housing, prices, pay, migration and jobs — the data behind the politics. Each figure counts up from where it stood a year earlier, with the change behind it. Sourced from the CSO and the Department of Housing.

Homelessness

16,734

in emergency accommodation, Dec · 2025

price paid, CSO · 2025

CPI, annual rate · Aug 2026

vs Q1 2019, real terms · Q2 2026

View full State of the Nation →

Dáil Constituencies

Interactive map of Ireland's 43 Dáil constituencies, coloured by the leading party's 2024 first-preference result. Full candidate-by-candidate results — first preferences, Droop quotas and every elected TD — are profiled for 43 constituencies so far. 4 were decided by under 7 points in 2024 — the closest, actual swing seats to watch.

Loading map…

Closest swing seats (2024 margin)

Cork · 4 seatsCork East0.0 pts margin Galway · 4 seatsGalway East0.2 pts margin Cork · 5 seatsCork North-Central0.6 pts margin Dublin · 4 seatsDublin Bay South0.9 pts margin

View all constituencies →