irishpolitics.ie

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TrackerLast Updated: 3 Jul 2026
SF20.9%-0.7FG18.3%+0.7FF16.0%-0.1SD11.0%+0.7Lab3.6%-0.2GP3.1%0.0Aon5.9%-0.2II6.8%-0.6PBP-S2.7%-0.1Ind11.7%+0.4SF20.9%-0.7FG18.3%+0.7FF16.0%-0.1SD11.0%+0.7Lab3.6%-0.2GP3.1%0.0Aon5.9%-0.2II6.8%-0.6PBP-S2.7%-0.1Ind11.7%+0.4
SF20.9%-0.7FG18.3%+0.7FF16.0%-0.1SD11.0%+0.7Lab3.6%-0.2GP3.1%0.0Aon5.9%-0.2II6.8%-0.6PBP-S2.7%-0.1Ind11.7%+0.4SF20.9%-0.7FG18.3%+0.7FF16.0%-0.1SD11.0%+0.7Lab3.6%-0.2GP3.1%0.0Aon5.9%-0.2II6.8%-0.6PBP-S2.7%-0.1Ind11.7%+0.4
Most seats
Sinn Féin 58%
Largest party in 2,892 of 5,000 simulations · Fine Gael 32%
FF + FG majority
0%
88+ seats together in 1 of 5,000 simulations
SF-led left majority
1%
SF+SD+Lab+GP+PBP-S reach 88+ in 28 of 5,000 simulations

Seat Projection

174-seat Dáil · 88 for a majority

Median seats from 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the current house-effect-adjusted polling average (polls to 3 Jul 2026), applied to the 174-seat Dáil using each party's 2024 vote-to-seat efficiency. Simulated polling errors are drawn from normal distributions and correlated across parties (government vs opposition, established parties vs independents), matching how real polling misses behave. Faint bars show the 10th–90th percentile range. Hover any bar for that party's full seat distribution and exact run counts. The red dashed line marks the 88-seat majority threshold.

Majority 88Sinn Féin3620.9%-3Fine Gael3418.3%-4Fianna Fáil3116%-17Social Democrats2211%+11Independents1611.7%-1Ind. Ireland116.8%+7Aontú105.9%+8Labour73.6%-4Green Party63.1%+5PBP–Solidarity22.7%-1020406080100120140160SEATS · POLL % · VS 2024PARTY — hover for simulation detailSeats won (Dáil Éireann — 174 total)

How to read this: Bar length = projected median seats. Faint extension = 10th–90th percentile range. "Poll %" is the party's current weighted average across Red C, Ireland Thinks, and Ipsos B&A polls. "vs '24" compares against seats won at the November 2024 general election. Projections assume national swing — they can't capture local candidate effects, and small parties' seats are especially sensitive to transfers under PR-STV.

Source: Irish Politics Seat Projection Model (Monte Carlo simulation of polling average)

Possible Coalitions

For each combination, the share of the 5,000 simulations in which its parties jointly reach 88 seats. This is purely arithmetic on the simulated seat counts — it says nothing about the parties' political willingness to govern together.

FF + FG0%
64median seats / 88 needed
Majority in 1 of 5,000 runs
FF + FG + SD43%
86median seats / 88 needed
Majority in 2,137 of 5,000 runs
FF + FG + Lab1%
71median seats / 88 needed
Majority in 33 of 5,000 runs
SF + SD + Lab + GP + PBP-S1%
72median seats / 88 needed
Majority in 28 of 5,000 runs

Coalition Builder

Select parties to see potential coalition seat totals

65
of 88 needed
⚠️ 23 more seats needed for majority
This combination reaches 88+ seats in 1 of 5,000 simulations (0%) · median 64 seats

Quick Load

Source: Irish Politics Seat Projection Model (Monte Carlo simulation of polling average)

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